Dollar Weakens as Market Ponders Fed Rate Cuts in 1H 

0744 GMT — The U.S. dollar is trading weaker as investors ponder the possibility of a first interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2024, Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital says. “The U.S. dollar began the week with a relatively weak performance, extending its selloff from last week,” he says in a note. Market expectations continue to lean toward no interest-rate hikes in December and a potential rate cut as early as May, and weigh on the currency, as inflation eased and Treasury yields retreated, he says. The DXY dollar index is almost 0.2% lower at 103.270. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

USD/JPY’s Rally Has Likely Ended, Charts Show

0626 GMT — USD/JPY’s rally over the past several months seems likely to have ended after it formed an “outside reversal week” last Friday, says Quek Ser Leang, markets strategist of UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, in a research note. The currency pair’s weekly moving average convergence divergence indicator is also turning negative for the first time since April, suggesting USD/JPY is turning lower, the strategist says. Given the sharp increase in downward momentum, USD/JPY will probably break below October’s low of 147.37 and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud, which is now near 145.80, the strategist says. USD/JPY is down 0.4% at 147.80 after earlier touching 147.27, its lowest intraday level since mid-September, according to FactSet. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)